A market for what happens next.
Standardized contracts on private-company events, priced by the institutions closest to them.
Defined terms
Every contract states its question, threshold and expiry.
Named resolution sources
Primary and fallback sources fixed before listing.
RFQ execution
Two-sided interest matched on request, never streamed.
Contract discovery
Where would you take the other side?
Defined contracts, named resolution sources, no live liquidity. Your view tells us which of them deserve a market first.
- VD·OAI·FIN·26FinancingOpenAI
Will OpenAI complete a qualifying primary financing on or before 31 Dec 2026?
31 Dec 2026Illustrative71Starting level - VD·ANT·VAL·250ValuationsAnthropic
Will Anthropic's next qualifying financing imply a post-money valuation above $250B?
Next qualifying roundIllustrative61Starting level - VD·STR·IPO·27IPOStripe
Will Stripe publicly file a registration statement on or before 31 Dec 2027?
31 Dec 2027Illustrative44Starting level - VD·SPX·VAL·500ValuationsSpaceX
Will SpaceX's next primary or tender reference imply a valuation above $500B?
31 Dec 2027Illustrative38Starting level - VD·AI·M&A·10BM&AAI infrastructure
Will a definitive agreement above $10B be signed in AI infrastructure before 30 Jun 2027?
30 Jun 2027Illustrative52Starting level - VD·DBR·FIN·27FinancingDatabricks
Will Databricks complete a qualifying primary financing on or before 31 Dec 2027?
31 Dec 2027Illustrative57Starting level
The thesis
Private markets are priced by the last event, not the next one.
Today
- Last priced round18 months ago
- Reference markStale
- Discovery venueBilateral, opaque
- Consensus signalAnecdotal
With a contract
- Defined eventPriced today
- Reference markContinuous
- Discovery venueStandardized contract
- Consensus signalObservable level
Expectation already exists across committees, diligence memos and secondaries desks. It is simply not expressed as a level anyone can reference, hedge or dispute.
A standardized contract turns that expectation into a price.
Contract reference book
Every contract is defined before it is priced.
Select a contract to view its threshold, primary resolution source, fallback source and settlement terms.
Contract references and levels shown are illustrative and provided to describe intended structure. They are not quotes, solicitations, offers, or indications of available liquidity, and no contract is currently available for trading.
Execution model
Request a level. Not a lottery.
Participants request two-way levels on a defined contract. Counterparties respond within a fixed window. Size, side and terms are explicit before anything is agreed.
- 01
Request
Name the contract, side and notional. No level is shown yet.
- 02
Respond
Selected counterparties return two-way levels within the window.
- 03
Compare
Levels arrive side by side. Nothing is committed.
- 04
Confirm
Accept a level or let the window lapse. Terms are already fixed.
- Contract
- VD·OAI·FIN·26
- Side
- Buy
- Notional
- $250,000
- Limit
- 72
- Counterparties
- 3 requested
- Response window
- 60 seconds
- Counterparty AAwaiting
- Counterparty BAwaiting
- Counterparty CAwaiting
Static illustration of an intended workflow. No request can be submitted and no counterparty levels are being provided.
Resolution standard
The VERDICT resolution standard.
Terms are fixed before a level exists.
Ambiguity is a settlement risk, not a detail. Each contract carries its threshold, named primary source, ordered fallback hierarchy and settlement mechanics from inception.
- Qualifying event stated in full
- Numeric threshold and measurement basis
- Deadline with timezone
- Notional and settlement currency
- Company announcement or regulatory filing
- Named at contract inception, never after
- Lead-investor or counterparty confirmation
- Regulator or exchange filing system
- Pre-approved independent data source
- Cash-settled against the stated threshold
- Disputes escalated under published market rules
- No discretionary re-interpretation of terms
One contract. One methodology. One verdict.
Intended participants
- Venture capital
- Growth equity
- Family offices
- Hedge funds
- Secondaries desks
- Corporate and strategic investors
Private capital has become larger, more concentrated and more consequential.
Its expectations still move through partner meetings, diligence calls and secondaries chatter — never through a reference level anyone can act on.
Expectations that matter should be priced.
The market knows before the database does.
Eligibility
Institutional by design.
- Institutional and professional participants only
- Eligibility assessed against applicable rules before onboarding
- No retail access, no promotional incentives
- Contracts intended to operate through regulated venue partners
Access is expected to be limited to eligible contract participants and comparable professional categories under applicable law. Requesting access does not create an account, a client relationship, or an eligibility determination.
Read the eligibility standardRequest institutional access.
Access is granted in cohorts as contracts and venue arrangements are finalized.
Three steps. Under a minute. Firm, mandate and the outcomes you want priced.
Submitting an access request does not create an account, client relationship, eligibility determination, order, or commitment to transact.